Global sovereign debt will climb past US$100 trillion in the year ahead, according to a forecast from Fitch Ratings. That would represent a rise of about US$7 trillion relative to year-end 2025. Much of the increase will be the result of government spending in the U.S. and China.
“A fairly high and rising debt burden in the sovereign world really means that the fiscal space is shrinking,” said Shelly Shetty, managing director, head of Americas and Asia sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings in New York City via a webcast on Wednesday. “It gives less capacity to respond to shocks, and obviously increases risk for adverse bond reaction to fiscal slippage or political shocks.”
The global median fiscal deficit is forecast to be about 3% of GDP this year — unchanged from what Fitch expects for 2025. The U.S. and China are forecast to run fiscal deficits of more than 7% of GDP this year.
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