U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order Thursday pausing tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico until April 2. “[J]ust a modification short-term,” he told reporters, with his usual eloquence. He reiterated his plan to impose steel and aluminum tariffs on March 12, and then reciprocal tariffs on all countries April 2.

“April 2 is going to be a very big day for America,” he said.

Two things happened next. Our Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne announced that the 25% tariffs Ottawa has placed on $30 billion worth of U.S. products in retaliation would remain in place. “The pressure stays on,” Champagne told CTV News.

On the same afternoon, Ontario Premier Doug Ford also chose not to budge. He’s sticking to a 25% surcharge on electricity that the province sells to about 1.5 million Americans. And those LCBO shelves that normally carry U.S. product will remain empty.

Call it the March break — at which point U.S. President Donald Trump offered something resembling an olive branch and Canadians shrugged their winter-coated shoulders.

One of the world’s great trade relationships is broken, perhaps beyond repair. Our economic interests — insofar as trade is concerned — are no longer aligned with those of the U.S. And that has less to do with Trump than you think.

I’m working on a piece about how portfolio managers can adapt to this new world order. I spoke with Stephen Johnston, a private equity manager and director of Omnigence, an alternative asset manager in Calgary, who told me the tariff flap is fundamentally about Washington’s plan to rebuild the U.S. manufacturing sector.

“It’s a national security issue,” Johnston said. “The Democrats will pursue it, and the Republicans will pursue it. They may pursue different tools, but they’re both driving towards reindustrializing.”

Automotive, aerospace and machine manufacturing are among the priorities, according to Johnston. “That’ll destroy Quebec and Ontario,” he said.

“Canada’s trade surplus with America is irrelevant,” Johnston said. “It’s the example that it serves. So when they go to the European Union, China and India [to negotiate trade deals], they can say ‘look what we did to our longest standing trading partner.’”

Canada is headed into a prolonged period of stagflation, in Johnston’s estimation. More on that next week.

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