Economic experts tell summit that greater urgency on trade issues needed

Urgency on trade certainty and diversification was a key message economic experts emphasized at a Public Policy Forum conference Thursday.

Speaking at the Canada Growth Summit, CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld said the government is doing the right things, but that it’s important not to slow-walk the process given the risks.

He said efforts to diversify trade and ease restrictions on exports to places like China and India is important, but the gains are still much smaller that what the U.S. offers.

“The reality is that when you actually measured the size of those as a share of our export basket, of those wins, they were pretty small. And so I think we do have to be still focused on plan A, which is getting a deal with the U.S. that’s the best we can.”

He said while a deal remains pending, Canada risks the U.S. deciding on new trade irritants like it did with the supposed problem of fentanyl coming in from Canada.

“We can’t really slow walk on this.”

Louise Blais, Quebec’s representative for the renewal of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, said the existing tariffs are killing businesses so it’s important to find a resolution.

“While I understand the strategic approach to to going slow, the fact of the matter is companies are going bankrupt as we speak, and those companies will be gone forever.”

She said companies like South Shore Furniture did all the right things like invest in automation, but it wasn’t enough to save the business from the trade disruptions.

“We’ve got to get to some form of resolution, in my view, sooner rather than later before we lose a generation of entrepreneurs in Canada.”

Steve Verheul, a former chief trade negotiator for Canada, said he isn’t banking on any kind of resolution coming from the upcoming review of CUSMA.

“I think that positions are still too far apart,” Verheul said. 

He said the U.S. is still waiting for concessions on sensitive issues while Canada is waiting for the U.S. to move on big issues like metal and auto tariffs. 

But while he sees barriers, he too urged urgency on trade.

Several cabinet ministers including Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Industry Minister Mélanie Joly are set to speak at the summit Thursday.