TD cuts forecast for home sales, prices for 2026 after weak activity in Q1

TD Economics says it has lowered its 2026 forecast for home sales and prices after weak performances over the past two quarters.

It now expects sales to fall 1.8% year over year and home prices to move 0.3% lower nationally.

Economist Rishi Sondhi says housing activity will likely take most of the year to recoup first-quarter losses, as sales remain constrained by a subdued economy, heightened uncertainty and ongoing cost of living pressures.

The report gave Ontario and B.C. the sharpest downgrades to sales and prices after “significant” first-quarter declines, as potential buyers in those provinces still face significant affordability challenges and are likely waiting for the market to bottom out.

Sondhi says pent-up demand “has yet to re-emerge as quickly as previously expected” in those provinces, suggesting further price declines may be needed.

The report forecasts a rebound for Canadian home sales in 2027 following improved economic and job market conditions, which could lead to growth in the national average price.

The Canadian Press

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